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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."